Monday, September 17, 2007

An easy day.

I took a long on the GBP/JPY pair this morning after the pinbar formed. (4 hour chart, at 8 a.m. EST.)

Even though I know the markets are going to be jittery until Bernanke makes his move tomorrow, I decided to jump on board. I took a small profit, at 40 pips. This wasn't the entire move, but I am happy.

I could have also taken the GBP/USD pinbar as well. I passed on this, as it has "USD" in it's pair. Also, as a side note, I know there is a lot of worry in England about Northern Rock and it's issues.

It is because of the above two paragraphs that I tempered my expectations. 40 pips is a good day. (Although under normal circumstances I would have swung for about 80.)

Even if I only get these 40 pips this week, I am still making money, and that's what the game is about.

As a word of advice: Don't try to trade the interest rate announcement, it has real potential to be a whipsaw. There are a ton of people wanting a 50 bp cut, and a lot pricing in a 25 bp cut. The truth is that nobody knows whats going to happen, and this particular announcement has 0% chance of making everyone happy. I expect to see major confusion for a little while afterwards.

Once the dust settles, we could find our trend, but until then.....stay the hell away from the U.S. Dollar.

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