As most of you know, I tend to be pretty upfront with my posts. If I am posting either here, or Forex Factory, it doesn't matter. But this has been a VERY disgusting week in Forex, in my humble opinion.
For starters, the markets are freaking the hell out. There are a billion opinions as to what is going on, and the truth of the matter is that nobody really seems to know. It sure isn't me at least. That's ok, because I don't need to know. Hell, I don't even care. For the most part, I have been pretty flat as all of this insanity keeps rolling on.
Another thing I saw this week really pissed me off.
Felix, from forexbastards.com, released a video this week that really took the cake. In a nutshell, it was "How to tell if your broker is a bucket shop." Cool, now this is a video that I really want to see... yeah, right.
Ok, so to sum this piece of crap up, it was him placing order through MB trading. It is an "ECN" broker. (Nevermind this is in fact impossible in the truest sense of the word, due to the very structure of the Forex market, but ok....)
Anyways, he was showing how if he put an order out there, it would effect the spread. This is because he was putting the offers between the bid. This was done either during very quiet hours, or there is no liquidity in their "market".
So, after telling us that pretty much all brokers are bucket shops, and that there are only two ECN's out there... (Currenex platform being the only other one, and it allows price shading.) He said that you can get a rebate if you mention him when signing up for MB.
GREAT. This site of his is getting worse and worse. Shit signal system. Costly education. (Which of course has a 5 star rating on his review board.)
Another piece of shit salesman.
Just what this market needed.
Really it's too bad, as the original concept of his site was brilliant.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Friday, August 24, 2007
Best trade.
I would like to brag a little here, only because it's my place, so I can! ;-)
I managed to make good (61) pips while sleeping. This is definitely the key here. I wasn't able to screw the trade up. This brings up an interesting point.
For a lot of traders, myself included, watching the trade is the worst thing you can do. It's sad if you think about it. But, it is certainly understandable. How many times do we see trades going up 5 pips, only to go down to our stop-loss? How many times have you said, "Damn it, if I would have just taken it as a scalp!"?
This is one of the hardest parts. It's like being right AND wrong at the same time. What a bitch. But, I have found that the largest wins I have had, have been the result of not being able to chicken out after 12 pip gains.
Freedom is why we trade. (Ok, one of many reasons, but a huge one none-the-less.) My favorite trade of all time was executed while I was at the zoo with my son. We came back, and daddy had 75 pips appear out of the blue. Can't argue with that. Giraffes and pips, what could be better?
The point is this: Accept the risks. Have a point you NEED to get out. And more importantly, have a PROFIT TARGET.
Don't spend your life in front of the monitor. I know a few people that are always watching the markets. It's not a bad way to learn, but do it in moderation. Go out and enjoy something else while your money is working for you.
Otherwise, your quality of life is going to be shit....
I managed to make good (61) pips while sleeping. This is definitely the key here. I wasn't able to screw the trade up. This brings up an interesting point.
For a lot of traders, myself included, watching the trade is the worst thing you can do. It's sad if you think about it. But, it is certainly understandable. How many times do we see trades going up 5 pips, only to go down to our stop-loss? How many times have you said, "Damn it, if I would have just taken it as a scalp!"?
This is one of the hardest parts. It's like being right AND wrong at the same time. What a bitch. But, I have found that the largest wins I have had, have been the result of not being able to chicken out after 12 pip gains.
Freedom is why we trade. (Ok, one of many reasons, but a huge one none-the-less.) My favorite trade of all time was executed while I was at the zoo with my son. We came back, and daddy had 75 pips appear out of the blue. Can't argue with that. Giraffes and pips, what could be better?
The point is this: Accept the risks. Have a point you NEED to get out. And more importantly, have a PROFIT TARGET.
Don't spend your life in front of the monitor. I know a few people that are always watching the markets. It's not a bad way to learn, but do it in moderation. Go out and enjoy something else while your money is working for you.
Otherwise, your quality of life is going to be shit....
Monday, August 20, 2007
My thoughts on last week.
Hi all,
I just thought I would post a few thoughts on this last week, as it was quite wild.
The Fed cuts the discount rate window rate. What this does is allow banks to borrow cheaper. This helps with liquidity in the various markets. While in itself doesn't sound like a bad idea, it is.
This has signalled that the Fed is thinking of "saving the markets". Bailing out people that have showed absolutely no fear of making bad bets, i.e. loans to people who could never pay back, just gives them the green light to repeat this behavior.
Our previous Chairman of the Fed had a bad habit of being "Street Smart", while Bernake tends to be an academic. Greenspan, the previous one, would not hesitate to facillitate this behavior, and here we are. These people NEED to feel the pain. No matter what it does to the economy in the near term.
Because if they don't get the ass-kicking they are asking for, there will be another bubble like this. Who knows what kind, but I can bet there is someone out there that is dreaming it up as I type this out.
This last week just shows that there is a sucker born every minute. Or in this case, millions of them.
I just thought I would post a few thoughts on this last week, as it was quite wild.
The Fed cuts the discount rate window rate. What this does is allow banks to borrow cheaper. This helps with liquidity in the various markets. While in itself doesn't sound like a bad idea, it is.
This has signalled that the Fed is thinking of "saving the markets". Bailing out people that have showed absolutely no fear of making bad bets, i.e. loans to people who could never pay back, just gives them the green light to repeat this behavior.
Our previous Chairman of the Fed had a bad habit of being "Street Smart", while Bernake tends to be an academic. Greenspan, the previous one, would not hesitate to facillitate this behavior, and here we are. These people NEED to feel the pain. No matter what it does to the economy in the near term.
Because if they don't get the ass-kicking they are asking for, there will be another bubble like this. Who knows what kind, but I can bet there is someone out there that is dreaming it up as I type this out.
This last week just shows that there is a sucker born every minute. Or in this case, millions of them.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Forex "Guru", Forex Scum.
I hate most of these jokers. I won't hide it at all. However, there are some people out there who have your well-being at heart. (I only know of two, but I would hope there is more out there.)
I have recently found some that are also Introducing Brokers for another Market Maker. HUGE RED FLAG.
Normally what happens is this: You pay a few thousand dollars (roughly $3,000) to go to a training seminar. It normally runs the course of a weekend. There are also going to be 5-10 people with you. He's just made up to $30,000 for the weekend.
Here's where it gets really good....
He has taught most of you very basic things that are widely available on the net. EMA crossover systems. Fibonacci retracements. Pivot points. Great, $3,000 for free information. (Don't believe me? Type any of these in your search engine.)
As an IB for the larger company, he also is getting roughly 1 pip of the spread you pay. On a standard lot, that is normally about $10, depending on the pair you are playing.
He has not only put $30,000 in his pocket this weekend, he has also trained 10 people to overtrade on shorter time frames. He probably spent a lot of time on the 5 and 15 minute time charts. Great, you get 5 or more signals a day. That's another $50 you put in his pocket. Any experienced trader can tell you that those time frames are normally just noise. You get whipped around. He just made $500 for the day off of you 10 people.
This goes on for about 4 weeks, until some people blow up. Guess what? His "training camps" run every month. That's right, a new batch of victims. What really makes his day is when a few of those people are still trading. Snowball of money for him. Frustration for you. After all of this, you are still wondering why you aren't profitable.
Guess what? There are plenty of people out there that aren't profitable. If this guy was so good, would he be selling his systems? Why not make a billion dollars this year, and call it a career? Because he is a failed trader. (If you research enough, most are.)
However, I can go out on a limb here, and recommend two places. James16 group at Forex Factory, as I am a member, and it is cheap. Rob Booker is the other.
Why these guys? Because they first and foremost don't take a huge chunk of money for 16 hours of time. They are continuing education. Very affordable on a monthly basis, and they both cover something the other jokers don't: Psychology.
Psychology in the market place is most of the battle. This is a hard, emotionally draining business. Or, I should say it CAN BE. But it really doesn't have to be.
I am seriouslly thinking about starting a real website for guys like me. The fairly newer trader that has the will, the drive, etc. The guy who is SO CLOSE HE CAN TASTE IT. And I would like it to be able to cater to the new guys, our little brothers and sisters. A fair place. I am not trying to dethrone anyone, as I think Forex Factory is great. But I think there is a need for a special place for the new guy. Unbiased.
Just a thought.
I have recently found some that are also Introducing Brokers for another Market Maker. HUGE RED FLAG.
Normally what happens is this: You pay a few thousand dollars (roughly $3,000) to go to a training seminar. It normally runs the course of a weekend. There are also going to be 5-10 people with you. He's just made up to $30,000 for the weekend.
Here's where it gets really good....
He has taught most of you very basic things that are widely available on the net. EMA crossover systems. Fibonacci retracements. Pivot points. Great, $3,000 for free information. (Don't believe me? Type any of these in your search engine.)
As an IB for the larger company, he also is getting roughly 1 pip of the spread you pay. On a standard lot, that is normally about $10, depending on the pair you are playing.
He has not only put $30,000 in his pocket this weekend, he has also trained 10 people to overtrade on shorter time frames. He probably spent a lot of time on the 5 and 15 minute time charts. Great, you get 5 or more signals a day. That's another $50 you put in his pocket. Any experienced trader can tell you that those time frames are normally just noise. You get whipped around. He just made $500 for the day off of you 10 people.
This goes on for about 4 weeks, until some people blow up. Guess what? His "training camps" run every month. That's right, a new batch of victims. What really makes his day is when a few of those people are still trading. Snowball of money for him. Frustration for you. After all of this, you are still wondering why you aren't profitable.
Guess what? There are plenty of people out there that aren't profitable. If this guy was so good, would he be selling his systems? Why not make a billion dollars this year, and call it a career? Because he is a failed trader. (If you research enough, most are.)
However, I can go out on a limb here, and recommend two places. James16 group at Forex Factory, as I am a member, and it is cheap. Rob Booker is the other.
Why these guys? Because they first and foremost don't take a huge chunk of money for 16 hours of time. They are continuing education. Very affordable on a monthly basis, and they both cover something the other jokers don't: Psychology.
Psychology in the market place is most of the battle. This is a hard, emotionally draining business. Or, I should say it CAN BE. But it really doesn't have to be.
I am seriouslly thinking about starting a real website for guys like me. The fairly newer trader that has the will, the drive, etc. The guy who is SO CLOSE HE CAN TASTE IT. And I would like it to be able to cater to the new guys, our little brothers and sisters. A fair place. I am not trying to dethrone anyone, as I think Forex Factory is great. But I think there is a need for a special place for the new guy. Unbiased.
Just a thought.
Missing the boat.
As I read through various posts on forums this weekend, I keep seeing a theme. This theme is a trap that a lot of us newer, and completely new guys get caught in.
It basically is when you see extreme moves in the Forex Market, and either don't get involved, or get "enough". When I look at the charts this weekend, I can't help but think, "Man, I should have went long EUR/AUD." Huh? When in the hell have I EVER played that pair? Remember, hindsight is 20/20. So what?
It's so easy to see it now. But always keep in mind that as these things are happening, you can never guess that the pair is going to break multiple resistance or support levels. If you are beating yourself up about "What could have been....", then it's time to get a grip. When you are in a trade, anything can happen. But, these moves don't happen everyday. Who would have guess a 1,000 pip drop in Yen pairs?
I also read a post where a trader was saying he stuck to his system and only landed a "few hundred pips" on the GBP/JPY. He was feeling a touch down about it, because there was so much more to be had this last week. A few hundred pips sounds like a damn fine week to me. (The alternative is to be the person who blew up this week, and judging by these moves, I am sure there are quite a few out there.)
So, I guess the thing I would leave you with is this: Just take what the market, or your time will allow. ANY GAIN is a good one.
It sure as hell beats the alternative....
It basically is when you see extreme moves in the Forex Market, and either don't get involved, or get "enough". When I look at the charts this weekend, I can't help but think, "Man, I should have went long EUR/AUD." Huh? When in the hell have I EVER played that pair? Remember, hindsight is 20/20. So what?
It's so easy to see it now. But always keep in mind that as these things are happening, you can never guess that the pair is going to break multiple resistance or support levels. If you are beating yourself up about "What could have been....", then it's time to get a grip. When you are in a trade, anything can happen. But, these moves don't happen everyday. Who would have guess a 1,000 pip drop in Yen pairs?
I also read a post where a trader was saying he stuck to his system and only landed a "few hundred pips" on the GBP/JPY. He was feeling a touch down about it, because there was so much more to be had this last week. A few hundred pips sounds like a damn fine week to me. (The alternative is to be the person who blew up this week, and judging by these moves, I am sure there are quite a few out there.)
So, I guess the thing I would leave you with is this: Just take what the market, or your time will allow. ANY GAIN is a good one.
It sure as hell beats the alternative....
Friday, August 17, 2007
This is a business.
Forex traders -
Please consider this for a moment. (I know it took me about 7 months to realize this, and only after James16 at Forex Factory wrote about it.)
Forex trading is the same as any other business. You have to buy a computer, books, internet access, a desk, a chair, and oh yeah...fund your account.
So if I were going to start an in-home accounting business, I would start with all of these things as well. The only difference would be the funding part, but I like to think about that like paying the tuition to get your degree.
Getting your degree...it IS something us traders have to do. It's not a traditional degree, and I would submit that it is actually much harder to obtain. It's a degree of "hard knocks". It is the time you have to put in suffering through bad trades. Oh, and here's the good news...losses never stop happening. This is harder emotionally than any medical school. This is harder than learning a trade. This is even harder than learning to play an instrument.
This is harder because a large part of this is learning about yourself, and what motivates you. I am willing to bet that most of you got into this with dreams of becoming millionares overnight. (This is certainly one I had......lol.) It was after about 2 or 3 trades that you learned it ain't quite like that.
But, if you are willing to put the effort in, this can be a great AND profitable business. Again with that "business" word. Trust me on this, if nothing else, the taxman considers it a business.
And the effort? I have a great way to start. James16 says demo trade for three months in a row making a profit. I have to say this has changed the way I look at the markets dramatically. I now have a goal, and it's not just getting rich. It's getting it RIGHT. If I can do that, then maybe the getting rich part will follow....
I do have a live account, and it is funded. I was actually trading live, with limited success, but never really could get anywhere. So my business plan includes making deposits while demoing.
See, I have decided that I am going to be a great trader, and I am willing to do whatever it takes. It could take 3 months, it could take 20 years. But the beauty of this plan is I no longer have the pressure of getting it perfect right out of the gate. Plus, as I learn, I will be able to start with a larger balance. (For those of you that don't know it yet, your account balance is a BIG part of how you will do in the end. For example, compare getting a 2% return per week on a $50,000 account, versus a $1,000 account.)
I know some of you will not listen to me, and you will have to lose quite a bit to consider demo trading. And then there will be the others that will simply blow up their accounts, and quit.
Remember this: You are going up against a vast array of people. Some of them are newbies like you, and the ones that actually move the market are professionals with billions at their disposal. Your $2,000 account at FXCM isn't going to run Citibank out of business.
So with that in mind, why risk ANY of your money before you have a fighting chance?
If you doubt me, just read through the forums at Forex Factory. You will see some traders that talk about how they are going for 100% a month returns, etc. You will also notice that they normally quit posting shortly after.
You certainly cannot just one day decide to be a neurosurgeon, so what makes Forex any different? You need to know how to do your job.
Learn to be fascinated with the game. Learn to love the game. Learn to enjoy your ability to play the game. But most of all....LEARN THE GAME.
Please consider this for a moment. (I know it took me about 7 months to realize this, and only after James16 at Forex Factory wrote about it.)
Forex trading is the same as any other business. You have to buy a computer, books, internet access, a desk, a chair, and oh yeah...fund your account.
So if I were going to start an in-home accounting business, I would start with all of these things as well. The only difference would be the funding part, but I like to think about that like paying the tuition to get your degree.
Getting your degree...it IS something us traders have to do. It's not a traditional degree, and I would submit that it is actually much harder to obtain. It's a degree of "hard knocks". It is the time you have to put in suffering through bad trades. Oh, and here's the good news...losses never stop happening. This is harder emotionally than any medical school. This is harder than learning a trade. This is even harder than learning to play an instrument.
This is harder because a large part of this is learning about yourself, and what motivates you. I am willing to bet that most of you got into this with dreams of becoming millionares overnight. (This is certainly one I had......lol.) It was after about 2 or 3 trades that you learned it ain't quite like that.
But, if you are willing to put the effort in, this can be a great AND profitable business. Again with that "business" word. Trust me on this, if nothing else, the taxman considers it a business.
And the effort? I have a great way to start. James16 says demo trade for three months in a row making a profit. I have to say this has changed the way I look at the markets dramatically. I now have a goal, and it's not just getting rich. It's getting it RIGHT. If I can do that, then maybe the getting rich part will follow....
I do have a live account, and it is funded. I was actually trading live, with limited success, but never really could get anywhere. So my business plan includes making deposits while demoing.
See, I have decided that I am going to be a great trader, and I am willing to do whatever it takes. It could take 3 months, it could take 20 years. But the beauty of this plan is I no longer have the pressure of getting it perfect right out of the gate. Plus, as I learn, I will be able to start with a larger balance. (For those of you that don't know it yet, your account balance is a BIG part of how you will do in the end. For example, compare getting a 2% return per week on a $50,000 account, versus a $1,000 account.)
I know some of you will not listen to me, and you will have to lose quite a bit to consider demo trading. And then there will be the others that will simply blow up their accounts, and quit.
Remember this: You are going up against a vast array of people. Some of them are newbies like you, and the ones that actually move the market are professionals with billions at their disposal. Your $2,000 account at FXCM isn't going to run Citibank out of business.
So with that in mind, why risk ANY of your money before you have a fighting chance?
If you doubt me, just read through the forums at Forex Factory. You will see some traders that talk about how they are going for 100% a month returns, etc. You will also notice that they normally quit posting shortly after.
You certainly cannot just one day decide to be a neurosurgeon, so what makes Forex any different? You need to know how to do your job.
Learn to be fascinated with the game. Learn to love the game. Learn to enjoy your ability to play the game. But most of all....LEARN THE GAME.
I have seen the light.
Hello, and thank you for visiting!
This is my first post, so forgive me while I go through a little background info.
I am a fairly new trader. I have been doing this since January of 2007. As most traders, I have had ups and downs, and tried several different ideas. Most of them are crap, let's be honest.
One place you will see me a lot is in the forums at Forex Factory. I absolutely cannot say enough about this place. I have also joined the James16 forum there at Forex Factory. It cost a little money, but just from what I have learned in only a few weeks - it's the best money I have ever spent.
But, as I am just now seeing the markets a little clearer, and I honestly believe there is hope for me, I thought perhaps I could share what I have learned in the first three quarters with the hope or making someone else's journey just a bit smoother.
You will find different little bits of information here, but to be honest, I tend to focus on the Psychology more than anything else. If you give yourself enough time, you can learn to read a chart. But, I would submit the thinking behind your trades is what gets you into trouble. I cannot stress this enough.
In case you didn't hear me: "I would submit the thinking behind your trades is what gets you into trouble. I cannot stress the enough." Got it? Good.
I will always answer emails, as I believe in helping others. If you have a question about something, please feel free to email me. However, I will not answer emails asking me questions like, "How long is it going to take me to get rich?". Or, things like, "How long will it take to turn $1,000 into $1,000,000?". If you have this kind of attitude, let me thank you for letting me have your money, by putting it into the market.
However, if you are asking a legitimate question about profits, I would encourage you to write.
If I do not know the answer, I am willing to bet I can direct you to a great post, or a great trader even....you never know!
Clockwork
This is my first post, so forgive me while I go through a little background info.
I am a fairly new trader. I have been doing this since January of 2007. As most traders, I have had ups and downs, and tried several different ideas. Most of them are crap, let's be honest.
One place you will see me a lot is in the forums at Forex Factory. I absolutely cannot say enough about this place. I have also joined the James16 forum there at Forex Factory. It cost a little money, but just from what I have learned in only a few weeks - it's the best money I have ever spent.
But, as I am just now seeing the markets a little clearer, and I honestly believe there is hope for me, I thought perhaps I could share what I have learned in the first three quarters with the hope or making someone else's journey just a bit smoother.
You will find different little bits of information here, but to be honest, I tend to focus on the Psychology more than anything else. If you give yourself enough time, you can learn to read a chart. But, I would submit the thinking behind your trades is what gets you into trouble. I cannot stress this enough.
In case you didn't hear me: "I would submit the thinking behind your trades is what gets you into trouble. I cannot stress the enough." Got it? Good.
I will always answer emails, as I believe in helping others. If you have a question about something, please feel free to email me. However, I will not answer emails asking me questions like, "How long is it going to take me to get rich?". Or, things like, "How long will it take to turn $1,000 into $1,000,000?". If you have this kind of attitude, let me thank you for letting me have your money, by putting it into the market.
However, if you are asking a legitimate question about profits, I would encourage you to write.
If I do not know the answer, I am willing to bet I can direct you to a great post, or a great trader even....you never know!
Clockwork
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