Wow -
This week has been slow so far.
I have actually been sitting in a short USD/CHF position most of the time. I am at break even basically. Any of you that have traded foreign exchange for more than ten minutes know how odd it is to be sitting in a break even position for this long. (About 48 hours.)
I should win some kind of prize.
Anyway, still looking at EUR/USD and thinking that we have seen the top. There certainly hasn't been a mad dash back up to 1.4950 has there? I think this is telling us something. I will be looking to short this pair in the near future. A long term play perhaps. But only if I get a nice reversal signal. Time will tell.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Last week, Non-Farm Payroll.
Ok, so most of you know how I feel about trading the news....
Take a look at EUR/USD this past Friday, damn near a doji. Almost unchanged, could have gotten pretty whipped around though, and that's always fun. Odd, it did the same shit last month. Are we starting to see traders care less about the NFP? God I hope so, it ruins an entire trading day.
I decided to sit it out, and even though the report said we LOST 17,000 jobs this past month in the U.S., the dollar actually gained on a few currencies. Why, you may ask? It's simple: The number is TOTAL bullshit, and always revised, normally by a lot. Why in the hell anyone would believe it still is beyond me.
However, I admit I haven't exactly done much in the way of homework for this next week yet. I did see a potential set up in the Dollar/Swiss Franc pair that looks somewhat promising. Take a look at the weekly chart, big damn pinbar. Sooner or later, this thing is going to find a bottom.
I don't care how bad the U.S. is, on what planet should our currency be worth less that Switzerland's? So sooner or later, it's going to have to stop.
I believe a lot of the "bad news" is already getting priced into the dollar. Now it's only a matter of time before we drag Europe down with us. I'm thinking EUR/USD short soon. Yep, you heard it right. And I do not like fighting a trend, but I believe this one is getting really, really, long in the tooth. (As a side note for you new guys....Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Swiss normally move exactly opposite. So.....buying USD/CHF bodes well for shorting EUR/USD. - If that weekly pinbar takes off that is.)
The British Pound is in trouble still....in case you haven't been paying attention. Any day that the U.S. LOSES JOBS, and still hands it to the Pound, you know something just isn't right in the U.K. I'm sure there is a fundamental reason, I just don't know the particulars. (Thank God I don't follow them all, this would turn into work.)
Oh, up 2.12% last week. Quiet, steady, and only take the easy ones.....kinda like life in the 80's. ;-)
Man I had a lot of fun back then!
Cheers.
Take a look at EUR/USD this past Friday, damn near a doji. Almost unchanged, could have gotten pretty whipped around though, and that's always fun. Odd, it did the same shit last month. Are we starting to see traders care less about the NFP? God I hope so, it ruins an entire trading day.
I decided to sit it out, and even though the report said we LOST 17,000 jobs this past month in the U.S., the dollar actually gained on a few currencies. Why, you may ask? It's simple: The number is TOTAL bullshit, and always revised, normally by a lot. Why in the hell anyone would believe it still is beyond me.
However, I admit I haven't exactly done much in the way of homework for this next week yet. I did see a potential set up in the Dollar/Swiss Franc pair that looks somewhat promising. Take a look at the weekly chart, big damn pinbar. Sooner or later, this thing is going to find a bottom.
I don't care how bad the U.S. is, on what planet should our currency be worth less that Switzerland's? So sooner or later, it's going to have to stop.
I believe a lot of the "bad news" is already getting priced into the dollar. Now it's only a matter of time before we drag Europe down with us. I'm thinking EUR/USD short soon. Yep, you heard it right. And I do not like fighting a trend, but I believe this one is getting really, really, long in the tooth. (As a side note for you new guys....Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Swiss normally move exactly opposite. So.....buying USD/CHF bodes well for shorting EUR/USD. - If that weekly pinbar takes off that is.)
The British Pound is in trouble still....in case you haven't been paying attention. Any day that the U.S. LOSES JOBS, and still hands it to the Pound, you know something just isn't right in the U.K. I'm sure there is a fundamental reason, I just don't know the particulars. (Thank God I don't follow them all, this would turn into work.)
Oh, up 2.12% last week. Quiet, steady, and only take the easy ones.....kinda like life in the 80's. ;-)
Man I had a lot of fun back then!
Cheers.
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